As America Chooses a New President: Defining the Future of Sino-US Relations Through 3 Cs and 3 Ts

Tags: Sino-US relations, trade, technology, Taiwan, cooperation, competition, confrontation

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will have far-reaching consequences for Sino-U.S. relations, impacting cooperation, competition, and confrontation. Analysts agree that while each administration might have distinct approaches, both are likely to maintain a tough stance on China. The trajectory of U.S.-China relations will hinge on three core issues—trade, technology, and Taiwan—known as the “3 Ts.”

Cooperation, Competition, and Confrontation

In recent years, competition and confrontation have defined much of Sino-U.S. relations, with cooperation becoming increasingly rare. Analysts observe that competition has become a structural aspect of this bilateral relationship, especially as policies and strategies become more entrenched on both sides.

Both the Republican and Democratic candidates have taken strong positions on China, with former President Donald Trump promising to “eliminate dependence” on China, while Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, pledges to ensure the U.S. wins the 21st-century economic competition. Regardless of who wins, the general direction of U.S.-China policy is expected to stay firm, with tariffs and investment restrictions likely to remain part of Washington’s approach.

Trade: Tariffs and Economic Strategies

The U.S.-China trade relationship is heavily influenced by concerns over trade imbalances and economic security. The U.S. has introduced tariffs on Chinese goods, a trend that began under Trump and has continued under Biden. A potential Trump administration is expected to increase these tariffs, which he considers a key tool for economic policy, while a Harris presidency might pursue a more targeted approach with a focus on partnerships to counterbalance China.

Beijing, on its part, is resigned to the persistence of these trade measures, with its main focus being on understanding the specific scope and limits of U.S. policies to navigate them effectively.

Technology: Restricting Access and Expanding Controls

Technology has become a central battleground in the Sino-U.S. relationship, with the U.S. adopting stringent controls over the export of key technologies to China. The Biden administration’s “small yard, high fence” strategy restricts Chinese access to certain advanced technologies crucial to national security, including semiconductors and AI.

These restrictions are likely to continue, with potential adjustments in scope. The Chinese government has expressed a desire for clear boundaries, even if restrictive, to facilitate strategic planning. However, recent updates have indicated that the scope of these restrictions may expand, affecting a wider range of technologies.

Taiwan: The “First Red Line”

Taiwan remains a critical and sensitive topic in U.S.-China relations. China views the self-governed island as an inalienable part of its territory and has vowed to prevent any moves toward independence, describing Taiwan as the foundation of U.S.-China political ties. Military activities around Taiwan have intensified, with China conducting regular sorties and drills simulating potential conflict scenarios.

While the U.S. has followed a “strategic ambiguity” policy on Taiwan, it has strengthened military and diplomatic support. Under a Harris administration, this approach may be further solidified with strong alliances, while a Trump administration could take a more unpredictable stance, though likely remaining tough.

Implications for the Region

The U.S.-China rivalry holds significant consequences for Southeast Asia. Increased tariffs under Trump could disrupt the global economy, affecting trading nations such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Conversely, a Harris administration would likely maintain current policies, supporting multilateral partnerships in the region.

Observers note that the expertise gap in Washington concerning Southeast Asia could impact the efficacy of U.S. strategies in the area, regardless of who becomes president.

“Personnel is Policy”: Key Roles in Shaping Policy

The makeup of each administration’s cabinet and advisory team will also shape Sino-U.S. relations. For instance, a Trump administration would prioritize loyalty, potentially increasing the influence of hawkish advisors. In contrast, Harris may lean toward continuity, bringing in a diverse team that upholds the current policies.

In China, policy direction is centralised around President Xi Jinping, while Chinese think tanks provide data-driven recommendations that shape Beijing’s strategies.

Ultimately, analysts stress the importance of cooperation and understanding between the U.S. and China, as both economies hold global responsibilities. Their decisions will shape not only bilateral relations but also broader global stability and prosperity.